Similar to downtown San Francisco’s “doom loop,” this is how the vicious cycle works: Reduced transit service causes riders to ditch buses and trains, which depresses fare revenues, leading to further service cuts and ridership drops. Transit advocates say the Muni service cuts this summer could signify the start of the region’s transit death spiral. Officials at the fare-dependent agency, which receives 5% of its operating funds from the state, say BART can’t survive without subsidies from California or local taxpayers. Of the region’s largest transit agencies, BART is in the tightest corner. In June, the agency’s board is expected to approve 11% inflationary fare increases over two years. They’re holding off on cuts and betting that schedule changes in September and efforts to improve safety and cleanliness will lure more off-peak riders and boost ridership, which is at about 40% of 2019 levels. Last week, seven of the agency’s nine directors opposed making cuts in their upcoming budget to address a $92 million deficit that begins in March 2025 once federal aid runs dry. Officials at BART, meanwhile, would likely have to consider service cuts and layoffs next spring when board directors adopt a budget for the 2025 fiscal year - when the rail agency’s massive deficit begins. San Francisco’s transportation agency has already said it will extend metered parking hours this summer to subsidize transit service. SFMTA Director Jeffrey Tumlin said that without state funds, the agency will eliminate one Muni line per month for 20 months starting this summer to balance the budget. There’s one main reason transit supporters say a subsidy is needed urgently: The Bay Area’s largest agencies say they will have to make service cuts soon.įor Muni, it would mean cutting service on 20 transit lines to head off a $130 million deficit starting in 2025. The Bay Area’s transit death spiral could start this summer But, he said, “We’re just not in a position to solve for their short-term needs at the moment.”Īnxious Bay Area transit officials and advocates say state budget negotiations over the next few weeks could determine the fate of the region’s transit system. In his first public remarks on the issue, Newsom told reporters in Sacramento on Friday that he was “very concerned” about transit agencies’ fiscal cliffs. Newsom’s revised budget proposal didn’t include any transit bailout funds and kept a $2 billion cut to capital funds as California tries to plug its own $31.5 billion deficit.
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